Intense speculation is swirling in Bangladesh’s political and diplomatic arenas regarding the potential independence of Myanmar’s Arakan state, drawing parallels with East Timor’s path to sovereignty. The question looming is whether Rakhine is heading towards independence, similar to East Timor, based on ethnic majority considerations.
East Timor, once an island province of Indonesia, gained independence on 20 May 2002 and has since been officially known as the Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste. The Portuguese began trading with Timor in the early 16th century and established a colony there by the mid-century. After clashes with the Dutch, the 1859 treaty resulted in the Portuguese retaining control over the western half of the island. During World War II, Japan occupied East Timor, but the Portuguese re-established their rule after Japan's surrender.
On 28 November 1975, East Timor declared independence from Portugal. Just nine days later, Indonesia invaded and annexed the territory as a province. Despite Indonesia’s efforts to stabilise the region through infrastructure investment, unrest persisted. An estimated 1,00,800 people died in conflicts between 1975 and 1999.
A UN-backed referendum on 30 August 1999 saw a majority of East Timorese vote for independence. The aftermath was marked by widespread violence, with pro-Indonesian militias—backed by the Indonesian military. Approximately 1,400 Timorese were killed, and 300,000 were displaced to West Timor. The International Force for East Timor (INTERFET), deployed on September 20, 1999, gradually curbed the violence. On October 25, 1999, the UN established a transitional administration, paving the way for East Timor’s international recognition as an independent state on May 20, 2002.
In Myanmar, Arakan is now almost entirely controlled by the Arakan Army, positioning the state on the brink of independence. The Arakan Army, predominantly Buddhist, seeks to establish a Muslim-free state, with approximately 1,50,000 Rohingya Muslims recently displaced from the region—a move seen as a preliminary step toward this goal. According to political scientists, plans for a Jewish-Christian state in Arakan have long been discussed and now appear closer to reality.
Still, questions remain: if Rakhine achieves independence, will the nearly 15 lakh displaced Rohingya Muslims be allowed to return—or will they remain permanently excluded? Sources familiar with internal political discussions suggest that high-level debates are ongoing in Bangladesh regarding the national interest, potential risks, and diplomatic strategies related to the issue.
In a n interview with Banglanews, political analyst Dr. Nazmul Ahsan Kalimullah said, “The corridor issue is not untrue. This is a highly sensitive issue. Perhaps that’s why the government is reluctant to speak openly about it.”
Former chairman of the Political Science Department at Dhaka University, Professor Dr. Nurul Amin Bepari, told Banglanews: "The emergence of a new state in Myanmar's Arakan region is inevitable, sooner or later. For whatever reason, the United States, United Nations, and European Union want a corridor through Bangladesh to Arakan. It appears Bangladesh’s policymakers also favour this, but India opposes it, resorting to propaganda to create confusion, incite political parties in Bangladesh, and sow public discord.”
According to informed sources, in March this year, Chief Adviser Dr. Muhammad Yunus hosted an iftar with over 1,00,000 Rohingya residents at the Cox’s Bazar refugee camps, with the UN Secretary-General seated beside him. During the gathering, Dr. Yunus pledged that next year’s Ramadan iftar would be held with the Rohingya in Arakan. This statement is widely viewed by political and diplomatic observers as a signal that the independence of Arakan is nearing.
Analysts believe the political climate shifted sharply when Foreign Affairs Adviser Md. Touhid Hossain later announced a policy-level decision regarding the establishment of a humanitarian corridor. The announcement sparked strong reactions across Bangladesh’s political spectrum, with parties from the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami to left- and right-wing factions demanding a clear statement from the government. Many are now asking: Is Bangladesh emerging as South Asia’s game changer before anyone can fully grasp the situation? Is the long-standing Rohingya crisis—considered a festering wound in South Asia—finally being resolved through the partitioning of Myanmar?
Speaking at an event in Thakurgaon on 28 April, BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir said, “We don’t want to become another Gaza. We don’t want more war. The decision to create a humanitarian corridor to Arakan should have been made after consulting all political parties.”
Recently, despite objections from Myanmar, Chief Adviser's high representative on Rohingya issues and also National Security Adviser Dr. Khalilur Rahman announced that Bangladesh would continue direct communication with the Arakan Army. He call for Rohingya inclusion in Arakan’s “new administration” has led political analysts to interpret this as a clear sign of the emergence of a new state. They argue that the term “new administration” contains the very seeds of statehood.
Professor Dr. Nurul Amin Bepari told Banglanews that India has long wanted to maintain its exclusive strategic partnership with the United States, particularly in South and Southeast Asia. India prefers that the US deal with other countries in the region through Delhi. But given the extent of US activities already underway in South Asia, the emergence of an Arakan state is now only a matter of time. Interestingly, China is unlikely to oppose the creation of an Arakan state. The Arakan Army has good relations with China, which has also invested in the region’s ports. There's also the matter of securing the Belt and Road Initiative routes.
International relations experts believe the Bangladesh government may currently be negotiating with the Arakan Army over the dignified return of the Rohingya population. If resolved, a humanitarian corridor or channel under UN auspices could be established along Bangladesh’s border with Arakan.
However, Rohingya representatives living abroad have urged Bangladesh to proceed with caution.
Khairul Alam, a former resident of Maungdaw now living in the Netherlands, told Banglanews, “Myanmar’s military junta regarded the Rohingya as Bengalis, and the Arakan Army shares the same perception. The region is now almost entirely under Arakan Army control. Most of its members are Buddhist and are trying to establish a Muslim-free state. They are forcibly expelling Muslim Rohingya from the area. Around 1,50,000 Rohingya have recently been displaced. This is the first step in creating a Muslim-free Arakan.”
According to Khairul Alam, many Arakan Army and Kuki-Chin members are based in camps in India. Given their religious and linguistic similarities, they are also receiving indirect support from Christian Kuki-Chin and Bnei Menashe communities living in the hilly regions of Bangladesh and India. In this situation, if Bangladesh supports the Arakan Army or facilitates a corridor under the UN without ensuring dignified citizenship and repatriation for the Rohingya, they may never be able to return to their homeland.
Asked whether the formation of an Arakan state would benefit Bangladesh, Professor Dr. Nurul Amin Bepari said, “If Arakan becomes a state; it will resemble East Timor—a buffer state of sorts. That would be good for Bangladesh. But the major issue is the repatriation of the Rohingyas. The Rohingyas made a mistake. They were misled by false promises and supported Myanmar’s junta government—reportedly on the advice of the fallen autocrat Sheikh Hasina. Whatever the past, if the Yunus-led government can send the Rohingya back to Arakan, that will be Bangladesh’s true success.”
Asked whether India opposes the proposed humanitarian corridor or the emergence of a new state in Arakan, Professor Dr. Bepari told Banglanews that India also maintains ties with the Arakan Army, primarily to secure its borders. However, New Delhi harbors deep concerns. It fears that if Arakan becomes a separate state, insurgent groups in Manipur, Nagaland, and Mizoram might feel emboldened to demand independence as well. That is why India would never welcome a new US- or China-backed state along its borders. India also sees the physical presence of the United States in South Asia as a threat.
Who is the Arakan Army?
The Arakan Army was formed in 2009 under the leadership of Major General Twan Mrat Naing in Myanmar’s Kachin province. General Naing also heads the political wing of the movement, the United League of Arakan (ULA), whose members are predominantly Buddhist.
Although the group initially declared its goal of establishing an independent Arakan state, its activities were limited to sporadic guerrilla attacks. The group gained prominence during the Myanmar military’s crackdown on the minority Rohingya population in 2018, gradually expanding its operations. After a ceasefire agreement in 2020, its activities slowed. However, following the military coup in Myanmar in 2021, the Arakan Army became active once more. Between late 2023 and early 2025, the Arakan Army gained control over much of the Rakhine (Arakan) State, including areas along the Bangladesh–Myanmar border. Despite conducting widespread attacks across the region, the group has conspicuously avoided targeting Kyaukpyu—a port city with substantial Chinese investments. Today, the Arakan Army operates a parallel administration in the areas under its control.
Where is Rakhine (Arakan) State?
Rakhine State, historically known as Arakan, spans 36,778 square kilometers in western Myanmar. It borders Chin and Magway to the north, Bago to the east, the Bay of Bengal to the south, and the Chittagong Hill Tracts of Bangladesh to the west. Once known as Arakan, the region was renamed Rakhine by Myanmar’s military regime in 1989. Its capital, now officially called Sittwe, was formerly known as Akyab. As of 2024, Rakhine has a population of over 30 lakh. An additional 15 lakh Rohingya refugees from the region currently reside in Bangladesh. The Arakanese (Rakhine Buddhists) are the majority ethnic group, alongside Chin, Mro, and Kami—mostly Buddhists with a small Christian minority. The Rohingya Muslim population is the second-largest group in the state.
Kyaukpyu, a coastal area in the Bay of Bengal, hosts a deep-sea port developed with substantial Chinese investment. This region is of strategic importance as a vital energy and trade corridor for China. A gas pipeline connects Kyaukpyu to China’s Yunnan province. The area is a key node in China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and China has also constructed an airport there. In addition to Kyaukpyu, both Sittwe and Thandwe also have airports.
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