Fresh uncertainty has surfaced in the country’s political landscape over whether the 13th national parliamentary election will be held in February. Political analysts believe this doubt among political parties stems from a lack of confidence in the interim government and the current state of law and order in the country.
According to analysts, several political parties—including the BNP—still cannot place their trust in the government regarding election matters. Adding to this distrust is a renewed debate over the electoral system itself, which is further complicating the political equation.
BNP’s acting chairman, Tarique Rahman, has publicly questioned whether the interim government is even capable of conducting the election. Observers note that this question can no longer be dismissed as an isolated remark.
Speaking virtually at an event held on Saturday (July 19) at the Krishibid Institution Bangladesh (KIB) auditorium in Dhaka, Tarique Rahman expressed his concern, saying, “Democratic political parties must remain vigilant about whether there is an attempt to delay the national election.”
He further said that a series of recent brutal and unexpected incidents have cast doubt on the interim government’s capabilities in the public’s eyes. Questioning whether certain actors—with backing from within the interim government—are deliberately trying to destabilize the country, he said, “If you listen to the voices of the people on social media and elsewhere, it is clear that such questions are emerging among the public.”
Meanwhile, fierce debate has erupted in political circles over the method by which the national election should be held. The conversation intensified after Jamaat-e-Islami demanded that the election be conducted through a system of proportional representation (PR), in which seats are distributed based on the share of votes each party receives. Jamaat-e-Islami has argued that the current system fails to reflect the true public mandate, hence their push for PR.
On Saturday (July 19), Jamaat-e-Islami demonstrated its organizational strength with a massive rally at Suhrawardy Udyan in the capital. From that gathering, the party reiterated its call for foundational electoral reforms before any election, specifically demanding the adoption of the PR system.
The BNP, one of the country's largest political parties, has taken a clear stance against the PR system. Senior leaders of the party believe that such a model could destabilize the existing political balance. They also suspect that calls for PR may be a veiled strategy to delay the election schedule.
Both camps—for and against PR—have been actively encouraging other political parties to align with their respective positions. In this context, all political parties in favor of PR were invited to attend Jamaat-e-Islami’s Saturday rally.
However, Jamaat did not extend an invitation to its long-time ally, the BNP, nor to the AB Party, which is led by a former Shibir president. Addressing this during a press briefing on Saturday (July 19), Jamaat’s Nayeb-e-Ameer Dr Syed Abdullah Mohammad Taher clarified that only parties supporting the PR system were invited to the rally.
At a roundtable discussion titled “The July Uprising and Rumors in Politics” held the same day at the Omni Residency Hotel in Banani, BNP Standing Committee member Salahuddin Ahmed was asked by reporters about the party’s absence from Jamaat-e-Islami’s rally. He replied, “They didn’t invite us, how could we attend?” He also expressed doubt that the BNP would have participated even if invited, saying, “Even if they had invited us, it’s not certain we would have gone.”
Political observers believe that such opposing stances from the two major parties regarding the PR system could eventually complicate the entire electoral process. They fear that the push for proportional representation may be a pressure tactic to secure political advantages or share power, either by the government or other actors. If this gap over electoral procedures remains unresolved, it could plunge the upcoming election into crisis.
Since the July popular uprising, the BNP and several other political parties have demanded a swift return to democratic governance through elections. The country had long been governed by an undemocratic regime that held farcical elections under a fascist system to retain power. The BNP has consistently supported holding elections only after key reforms are completed, with the goal of restoring people’s voting rights.
In contrast, the National Citizen Party (NCP) and Jamaat-e-Islami—both of which played active roles in the July uprising—opposed setting a strict timeline for the interim government to complete reforms. They were not in a hurry to hold elections and repeatedly emphasized the need to complete reforms beforehand.
This created a quiet but growing rift between BNP and its ideological allies on one side, and Jamaat-e-Islami and the NCP on the other. Tensions escalated after Chief Adviser Dr Muhammad Yunus, in a June 6 address to the nation, announced that the national election would be held on a day in the first half of April 2026. The BNP had demanded that the election be held by December, while Jamaat-e-Islami indicated it had no objection if elections took place between February and April. BNP and its allied parties suspected that the April schedule was chosen to align with Jamaat’s preferences.
However, following a June 13 meeting in London between Chief Adviser Dr Muhammad Yunus and BNP’s acting chairman Tarique Rahman, a joint statement was released declaring February as the target for the election. This revived the morale of BNP leaders and supporters. Still, the joint declaration from a government leader and a single party's representative raised questions among parties like the NCP and Jamaat-e-Islami. The joint statement had included a condition from the government: if significant progress was made on reforms and justice for killings during the uprising, elections could be held before Ramadan, i.e., in February.
After the London meeting, BNP leaders believed the electoral deadlock had been resolved and began preparations, expecting the election to be held in February before Ramadan. Even parties like the NCP and Jamaat-e-Islami began operating under the assumption that elections could happen before Ramadan, influenced by the momentum of the London agreement.
With that possibility in mind, various parties began planning and implementing programs. Political polarization began to take more distinct shape. Still, a lingering question remained: would elections actually be held in February? In fact, doubts about whether the election would happen at all continued to swirl within political circles. Tarique Rahman’s recent expression of uncertainty has reignited those very questions.
Speaking to Banglanews, BNP Senior Joint Secretary General Ruhul Kabir Rizvi said, “The government has yet to clearly state the date of the election. The election commission will announce the schedule—that can come a little later. But the government should be able to say what date the election will be held. That is its fundamental responsibility. It has already held discussions with political parties. Most parties have expressed the opinion that the election should take place before Ramadan. After the joint statement following the London meeting, the entire country felt reassured. We still have hope. But we’re seeing no initiatives to hold the election before Ramadan. In that context, the acting chairman’s doubts are entirely justified. We are seeing a lack of sincerity from the government when it comes to holding the election.”
Asked whether the demand for a caretaker government might arise if the interim government expresses its inability to organize the election, Rizvi responded, “That is something the party will decide through internal discussion. At the current point of political momentum, we still view the current government as responsible for carrying out the duties of a neutral administration—and we expect it to promptly declare the month of the election. The public expects that once the government announces the timeframe, the election commission will issue the schedule. Whether the government has a hidden master plan beyond this—it’s hard to say at this moment. I can’t speak with certainty.”
Meanwhile, following his participation in the “TEDx Comilla University” event on Saturday (July 19) at the Moinamoti Auditorium of the Bangladesh Academy for Rural Development (BARD) in Cumilla, the Chief Adviser’s Press Secretary Shafiqul Alam told journalists that the election would be held on schedule in line with the Chief Adviser’s previously announced timeframe. He added that the interim government has no plans to delay the election.
Still, some political analysts and leaders from various parties have said they cannot place full confidence in the government's goodwill regarding the election. A series of recent incidents has rekindled political tensions. These include the brutal murder in front of Mitford Hospital, an attack in Gopalganj on a peaceful NCP rally by supporters of the banned Awami League and its affiliates, and the deaths of five individuals during clashes with law enforcement. These events have heightened the political temperature.
The situation further escalated following a BNP rally in Cox’s Bazar, where BNP supporters vandalized the stage in reaction to what they deemed an “inappropriate” comment made by an NCP leader directed at BNP Standing Committee member Salahuddin Ahmed.
These events have deepened the uncertainty in political circles about whether the upcoming election will take place at all. Some have even raised concerns that the deterioration of law and order might be part of a deliberate strategy by certain groups to delay the election.
The student blockade at the Secretariat on July 22—just a day after the fatal military plane crash at Milestone College that claimed 31 lives, including schoolchildren—has led many to wonder whether it was part of this broader strategy.
BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir has remarked that frequent meetings between the government and political parties could have helped avert such crises. On Wednesday (July 23), speaking to reporters after a meeting with the Nationalist Small Ethnic Group Party at the BNP Chairperson’s office in Gulshan, he said:
“There is no shortage of unity among anti-fascist forces, and that unity remains intact. We attended a meeting with the Chief Adviser last night because the government reaches out to us when it finds itself in crisis. We are committed to establishing democracy, which is why we did not back away from the discussion. Had there been more regular exchanges of views, many of these crises could have been avoided.”
Speaking to Banglanews, Dhaka University political science professor Dr Dil Rowshan Zinnat Ara Nazneen said, “There is uncertainty in everyone’s mind about whether the election will actually take place in February. The incidents in Gopalganj and Cox’s Bazar, and then we saw a video where Sheikh Hasina said more such incidents would occur—that they have organized in 30 places—these developments are indeed alarming. In this context, Tarique Rahman’s expression of doubt is not unfounded.”
Noting the weak response from law enforcement, she added, “Police officers seem to be in a weakened state. Even after the events of August 5, there is no indication that they have become better organized. We don’t see much attention being given to them. If law enforcement isn’t strengthened, it’s doubtful whether the election can be held properly. Before the election, the law enforcement agencies must be reinforced.”
Former president of the Jessore Press Club and senior journalist Fakir Shawkat told Banglanews, “Forces opposed to the election are busy with various types of activity. People have been deprived of their voting rights for a long time, denied their basic entitlements, and that’s why the popular uprising occurred. It wasn’t about job quotas. If voting rights continue to be obstructed for various reasons, it must be understood that efforts to delay the election are still ongoing. That in itself breeds uncertainty.”
He believes that if circumstances arise suggesting the election could be delayed, there may be renewed calls for forming a caretaker government to oversee it. “If the interim government shows any inability to carry out the election, it would be legally appropriate to transfer authority to a caretaker government,” he said.
On June 30, 2011, the deposed Awami League government passed the 15th amendment to the constitution, abolishing the caretaker government system. Thirteen years later, on December 17 last year, the Supreme Court reinstated the caretaker system through a verdict that declared the 15th amendment unconstitutional. The full text of the ruling was published by the Supreme Court on July 8 this year.
Meanwhile, at the start of a meeting on Sunday (July 20) between the National Consensus Commission and political parties, the commission’s vice chairman, Professor Dr Ali Riaz, stated that a revised proposal had been submitted regarding the reinstatement of the caretaker government and the appointment of a chief adviser. Most political parties reportedly agreed with the proposal’s key elements.
As the current unrest in the country deepens, political analysts are increasingly asking whether the need to form a caretaker government will become inevitable—particularly if the scheduled February election is postponed due to the prevailing circumstances.
However, the government maintains that the law and order situation has visibly improved nationwide. Adviser for Home Affairs Lieutenant General (Retd.) Md Jahangir Alam Chowdhury told reporters on Sunday (July 20) after a core committee and special meeting at the Ministry of Home Affairs on law and order in Dhaka and surrounding areas, “It is not true that law enforcement will be unable to ensure a fair election. We still have time. Preparations are underway, and training is being provided. There will be no difficulty in conducting a free and fair election.”
As political tensions rise nationwide in the lead-up to the election, certainty remains elusive. Amid the atmosphere of violence, strategic maneuvering, and suspicion, one pressing question looms: will the march toward democracy continue—or will political realities once again push the country into a deadlock?
MSK/
