DHAKA: A UK exit from the European Union could mean the UK misses out on up to 5.6% of GDP growth by 2019.

The IMF has warned, reports the BBC.

Brexit is the ‘largest near-term risk’ to the UK economy, the IMF said in its annual UK economic outlook.

It added that the net economic effects would probably be ‘negative and substantial’.

But the Economists for Brexit campaign said the consensus that a UK exit would be bad for the economy was ‘based on flawed EU-centric models’.

There are five days to go until the UK decides on its future in the European Union, in a referendum on 23 June.

The IMF said that under its least adverse scenario for Brexit, by 2019 UK GDP would be 1.4% below what it would be should the UK vote to stay in the EU.

Its most adverse Brexit scenario predicts 2019 growth 5.6% below what it would otherwise have been, and also a drop in GDP in 2017 of 0.8%, which an IMF official described as a ‘recession’.

Under this scenario the UK would return to GDP growth of 2.9% in 2021. But the UK would have missed out on 4.5% of growth by then, it said.

BDST: 1116 HRS, JUN 18, 2016
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